Think of air fare fluctuations as like the stock market

Each week newspapers publish long lists of low (but not lowest possible) air fares from Pittsburgh and other markets to a variety of destinations, both domestic and international. No other feature draws more reader reaction than these fares.

Despite all the qualifications and restrictions that accompany these fares, readers are constantly frustrated when they can't just call up and make a reservation for the printed price.

We do our best to get the most accurate, up-to-date information, but as most readers know, air fares fluctuate so dramatically these days, there's no assurance that fares which are available to us on Friday will still be in effect on Sunday, when you read it, let alone that seats will be available to reserve on the flight you want.

Newspapers also publishe stock market prices. The previous day's closings are listed in the business section each morning, but readers understand that those prices are always fluctuating. No one is surprised when they can't buy (or sell) a stock for the exact quotation listed in the paper.

Although the situations aren't exactly the same, that's the way air fares should be regarded these days, even though what you're buying (and paying for) is a reservation on a flight that may be months in the future. Of course, once you buy a ticket, regardless of the fare basis or flight class, the price of that seat reservation may rise and fall a dozen times before you take your trip. In some cases, passengers can exchange their tickets and take advantage of a lower price, but it's not always easy to know when fares change, and fees can quickly consume any savings.

The Internet has dramatically increased the ways to buy a reservation, from airline Web sites to online agencies like Travelocity and Expedia to various discounters like Priceline.com and Cheaptickets.com. All proclaim to provide their users with the best deals and lowest fares.

Why does buying an airline ticket have to be such a gamble, a "put your money down and watch the wheel spin" experience? Apart from hotels and rental cars, what other consumer items are priced that way? It certainly adds unnecessary anxieties to the travel process, not to mention the other travel "lotteries," such as "Will there be actually be a seat when I get there?" and "Will the plane take off and land on time?"

The proposed absorption of US Airways by United Airlines has rightly set off inquiries and examinations as to what this development portends for the Pittsburgh area, its travelers and its economic future. Preliminary positive assurances have been made, but the blunt truth is that no one really knows what will happen a year or two down the road, although it's safe to assume that somebody's going to have to pay for the premium to US Airways' executives and shareholders.

While the combined carriers can make all the assurances they want, it's also clear that if they're not planning to eliminate employees or reduce service, that "somebody" is likely to be the traveling public. In fact, the carriers have become so adept at their game of "con-fare-scation," no one knows how much any trip should cost. To make matters worse, in the absence of effective competition, an airline can even raise its fares without changing its advertised prices. Conversely, it can slash its advertised prices without lowering its fares.

Recently US Airways, along with the nation's other major airlines, has been promoting a host of fare-saving possibilities for flights. The latest deal is for tickets purchased by July 21 for flights through Dec. 15, accompanied by ads encouraging passengers to make their reservations while seats are available.

At the same time, every Wednesday, the airlines offer deeply discounted specials to travelers who can fly that Saturday and return on Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. Passengers who can book at least 14 days in advance and stay over a Saturday night can also score some savings, assuming seats are available on suitable flights. Almost everyone else is paying some variation of the base fare for the particular cabin category they're flying. On any given flight, the difference in fares paid is sure to be dramatic (even though all passengers arrive at the same time).

This blending of ticket prices on any flight makes it both difficult to know what's fair for a fare and hard to compare actual fares over a time period, and thus know whether fares are going up or down. Furthermore, by fiddling with the allotment of seats made available for frequent-flier coupons and discount tickets, the airline can effectively increase its "yield" on a flight, without changing the base fare.

Simultaneously, with economy-conscious travelers fixated on advertised discounts, the airline can ratchet up its base-economy, business- and first-class fares to levels guaranteed to cause a case of sticker shock for any traveler unfortunate enough to have to pay them.

So, factoring out all the smoke and mirrors, are airline fares out of Pittsburgh International, 85 percent of which are on US Airways departures, going up or down?

Topaz International is a Portland, Ore.-based company that has been providing air fare audits for corporations since 1978. Analyzing more than a billion dollars worth of airline tickets issued to its clients each year, Topaz is one of the few sources of impartial data on a cross section of airline tickets. Though its clients are perhaps less likely to be flying on the lowest possible discount fares, its regular audits do provide a reasonable benchmark of average ticket prices in or out of any domestic airport.

We asked Topaz for data on average costs per round trip from Pittsburgh to New York, Washington, D.C., Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles and San Francisco, as well as the average cost per mile flown.

Average fares for the first six months of the year were up from 12 to 30 percent from last year in five of the six markets, with the exception of Miami. The average cost per passenger mile flown from Pittsburgh to those six cities soared from 42 cents to 57 cents, more than a 35 percent increase!

Considering the average cost of a round trip from Pittsburgh to all domestic locations, however, ticket prices in June 2000 were down, from $331.26 in 1999 to $323.41.

Before we celebrate lower costs for airline travel, it's important to note that similar June 2000 figures for flights from Cleveland were $291.05 and $205.38 from Baltimore.

It appears that in addition to paying more for airline tickets, Pittsburgh and its passengers suffer from a competitive disadvantage that may only get worse.