FLYING ON Y2K DAY IS LIKELY TO INVOLVE MORE DELAY THAN DANGER

Thousands of travelers have already made reservations to be at a special locale at midnight two New Year's Eves from now, when the calendar slides past that year 2000 milestone. Cruise lines and resorts around the world are scrambling to provide adventurous travelers with an exotic "someplace special" to be when the ball falls at midnight on Dec. 31, 1999. Some destinations and departures already claim to be sold-out, even at the premium rates many are charging for the special event.  Putting aside questions of whether or not Jan. 1 will be the first day of the next millennium, it certainly won't be an ideal date to travel. Forget the holiday crowds and possible winter weather woes. It also will be the first day of Y2K.

By now, everyone is familiar with the so-called "millennium bug," which inhabits millions of computers around the planet, rendering them unable to understand the simple concept of a year beginning with 20 rather than 19 and ending in 00. Imagine the havoc that date dyslexia is likely to wreak in the complex cyber system that directs when and where tens of thousands of airplanes take off and land each day at airports worldwide. How well prepared are we for this challenge?  The Federal Aviation Administration guides planes through U.S. skies and regulates other flight-crucial functions, such as the certification of pilots and inspection of aircraft. The good news: only 71 of the 222 computers on which it relies must be fixed. A third of those remaining computers have already been worked on, and the FAA says the rest will be ready by the end of June. According to the International Air Transport Association, the international equivalent of the FAA, similar debugging efforts are being undertaken in the world's other primary traffic control systems, and while not as far along as the FAA, they expect to be updated in time.  Even if conversion of traffic control isn't complete, it's highly unlikely a computer crash will cause a plane to crash. Everything, from the allocation of take-off and landing slots to the stacking of planes in flight, will just slow down. That will create a huge potential for schedule delays and disruptions that will start earlier and linger longer than a New Year's hangover.  In addition to the air traffic control systems, each airline and airport also maintains its own complex of computers; retraining them all to speak 2000 is certain to take more time.  Major airlines are reporting that they expect to have their computer networks de-bugged in time, both for scheduling flights and crews. Some snafus, however, are likely to start turning up as early as next spring, as advance-reservation bookings for flights in 2000 start coming online.  Running an airport is an incredibly complex process. Talk about work stoppages? What will happen if jetways go on strike, or the little trucks that cart baggage around refuse to operate after midnight? Will flight monitors go haywire? Will elevators still elevate and escalators escalate?  The Air Transport Association, an organization representing the world's airlines, recently surveyed 81 airports and found that only 20 were on schedule for compliance, 33 were at least a month behind schedule, and 28 still had no formal plan for dealing with the problem.  And even if all those transitions go smoothly, what about the estimated 22,000 commercial suppliers, from aviation fuel to in-flight meals, that allow the 550 airports in theUnited States to operate smoothly? As air travelers in winter are all too aware of, a single significant glitch in any airport can have a ripple effect on the complicated dance of aircraft 2,000 miles away.  So while Jan. 1, 2000, will likely be a safe enough day to travel, bring along a good book, especially if you'll be catching a flight home from the Rose Bowl.

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